This morning, we tracked the route of an Italian Air Force ATR P-72A (reg. MM62298) that took off from Sigonella and headed towards the western Mediterranean. Upon reaching the area south of Sardinia, the signal disappeared (likely because the ADS-B transponder was turned off).
We do not know the nature of the mission, but in the same area, the Russian submarine Novorossiysk is expected to be, assuming an average speed of around 8 knots, en route to Tartus.
Regarding the submarine, it is worth noting that, according to the latest radio message, the tug Churov that was accompanying it is now north of Portugal, apparently returning to Russia.
This is unusual but not too surprising if we consider that nearly all Russian naval units in the Mediterranean are not in Tartus but at sea.
It is therefore possible that some of these units have taken over from the tug Churov, escorting the submarine to Tartus themselves. It is also possible that the units not involved in escorting the submarine are at sea to participate in the Russian Navy’s Okean exercise.